China's economy to grow at 4.8% in 2024, 4.5% in 2025, ADB forecasts

Source：CHINA SPORTING GOODS FEDERATIONRelease time：2024-04-15Clicks：

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The Chinese economy is projected to grow at 4.8 per cent this year amid a recovery of household consumption, ongoing property market adjustment and weak external demand, according to the latest Asian Development Outlook released today by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Growth is projected to moderate from a 5.2-per cent expansion last year. An uncertain external macroeconomic environment, together with trade tensions, may affect demand for China’s exports. Growth will further moderate to 4.5 per cent next year, the report projected.

Investment is expected to be supported by strong public infrastructure spending, boosted by fiscal expansion, while high-tech and other manufacturing investments should continue to grow solidly on the back of policy support.

However, subdued consumer and investor sentiment in the property sector are expected to persist, an ADB release said citing the report.

Inflation is forecast to rise to 1.1 per cent this year, as the economy continues to recover, and should rise further to 1.5 per cent in 2025, assuming domestic demand continues to recover.

Risks to the outlook include further deterioration in the property market, which could undermine financial stability. Recurrent financial market turbulence can also dampen consumer sentiment.

External risks include increased trade tensions with the United States and the European Union weakening exports; escalated geopolitical tensions that may disrupt supply chains; renewed energy challenges triggered by geopolitical conflict; and fragmentation of the global economy.