2024 ASEAN near-term outlook positive: S&P Global Market Intelligence

Source：CHINA SPORTING GOODS FEDERATIONRelease time：2024-01-30Clicks：

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The near-term economic outlook for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region this year remains positive, supported by the continued expansion of domestic demand in a number of large economies, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Foreign direct investment inflows are also expected to remain strong, as multinationals continue to diversify their manufacturing supply chains towards Southeast Asian industrialised nations, Rajiv Biswas, Asia Pacific chief economist at the company wrote on its website.

The ASEAN region is, therefore, expected to continue to be one of the fastest-growing regions of the global economy over the next decade, and an increasingly important growth engine for the Asia-Pacific (APAC).

A gradual upturn in merchandise exports in the ASEAN region is expected this year, after a significant downturn in exports of goods in many Asian industrial nations last year due to weakness in key consumer markets in Western Europe and China.

A number of ASEAN central banks are also expected to commence easing monetary policy this year, which will help to provide some stimulus for economic growth, Biswas wrote.

Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in 2023 is estimated at around 5 per cent, with a similar pace of economic growth forecast for 2024. The country’s outlook for 2024 is for continued robust growth in private consumption and fixed investment.

Vietnam's GDP growth rate in 2023 was estimated at 5.1 per cent, with economic growth momentum having been impacted by weak demand in key export markets. However, the pace of economic growth improved in the fourth quarter (Q4) last year, rising to 6.7 per cent year on year (YoY) compared with 5.5 per cent YoY in Q3. This was helped by a gradual recovery in exports, which rose by 6.7 per cent YoY in November.

Singapore's GDP growth rate improved to a pace of 2.8 per cent YoY in Q4 2023. Malaysia's economy showed resilient economic expansion last year at an estimated rate of around 4 per cent. Its GDP growth improved to a pace of 3.3 per cent YoY in Q3 2023, compared with a growth of 2.9 per cent YoY in Q2.

Economic growth in the Philippines remained strong last year, with GDP growth improving to a pace of 5.9 per cent YoY in Q3, compared with a GDP growth of 4.3 per cent YoY in Q2. The outlook for 2024 is for continued rapid economic growth, helped by expected gradual easing of monetary policy.

In Thailand the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 45.1 in December last year, down from 47.6 in November. This signalled a fifth successive monthly contraction in manufacturing sector conditions and at the sharpest pace since June 2020.

Thailand's total GDP also showed weakness in Q3 2023, slowing to a pace of 1.5 per cent growth YoY, following a moderate growth of 1.8 per cent YoY in Q2.

The medium-term growth outlook for the ASEAN region remains quite positive as well, underpinned by sustained expansion in private consumption in some of the largest consumer markets in Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia.

The rapid growth of ASEAN exports is also expected to be strengthened by the APAC regional trade liberalisation architecture, Biswas added.